Premarket. Start is given

The trading week starts with a negative one. Technical overbought risk capital markets could not be realized in the absence of significant drivers of the fall. Now the downside players have received fundamental arguments — the decline in the effectiveness of the international vaccination program, coupled with the growth of geopolitical tensions, can lead to the development of a downward movement of the indices. The risk indicators are in motion.



The commodity market continues to cool after reaching a week earlier highs for the last 11 months above $57 for Brent. The area of $54 was considered as a reference point for the correction. The growth of production activity in the United States and the technical component of oil contracts so far favor the bears of the commodity market.Financial topics and the financial market are now relevant and at the peak of recovery.You can work and get additional revenue by mastering a few simple steps.For more information, please contact Shift Holdings.com reviews, which has proven itself with good reviews.

Asian markets
The correction in the Asia-Pacific markets is developing, signaling the upcoming weakness of the European segment on Monday. And China continues to grow rapidly.

Chinese markets are rising within 1% on the Shanghai Composite share index, again approaching three-year highs at 3,600 p. The historical short-term inverse correlation of the Chinese stock market and global trends is once again confirmed.

Support for the players to increase is provided by the pumping of the financial market with liquidity from the NBK and the rapid growth of economic activity in the country. Macro statistics reflected a 6.5% rise in GDP for the fourth quarter against the consensus of 6.1%. Dependency level is reached. Our estimates of the end of the summer were confirmed, China becomes the only country with positive GDP dynamics in 2020.


South Korea's Kospi continues a strong decline that began a week earlier in the wake of extreme overbought conditions. The rally since November 2020 has provided a 50% increase in the index. The technical signals of the exhaustion of the rise from January 11 were realized. Trend support will attract the index.

American sites

Trading on the US stock market ended with a drop in the indices in the range of 0.5–0.9%. The Nasdaq high-tech sector was the most affected. The trend is continuing Friday and Monday.

Today, the US spot market is closed for the holiday, and futures contracts are stagnating by 0.3%, reaching 3750 p.on the S&P 500. Previously, the area of 3660 p was considered as a reference point for a decline after reaching the target of 3800 p. The probability of such an outcome is growing.

If at the beginning of last week, investors were concerned about the jump in government bond yields, which signaled a likely increase in discount rates, then at the end of the week's trading, news came about a reduction in the supply of Pfizer's vaccine to the European market. The official reason is the modernization of the pharmaceutical company's production facilities, but more and more information is being received about cases of deaths after vaccination in the United States, Norway, and Germany.

Against the backdrop of growing uncertainty, investment risk indicators have moved. The US dollar, acting as a protective asset, was able to continue the rebound from the area of three-year lows shown in early January 2021.

The DXY dollar index: 90.8 p. recovered the losses of the last month, even despite the expanded fiscal program of $1.9 trillion, announced by the new US President Joe Biden. The potential for an upward maneuver remains, but it is not yet necessary to talk about a reversal of the global devaluation trend.

The volatility index, which reflects the sentiment towards the risk of the stock market, has moved away from the area of historical averages. Of course, there are no prerequisites for going to the extreme values, but short-term uncertainty increases the probability of moving towards 30 p.

US stocks rise on hopes of stimulus and strong quarterly reporting season

US stocks were not trading on Monday due to the celebration of Martin Luther King Day, so a new trading week began for them on Tuesday. Major stock indexes rose thanks to technology stocks, as well as demand for small-cap stocks.



 

Investors ' behavior on Tuesday pointed to the return of reflationary trading. As well as companies such as deltamarket.net they have been on the market for a long time,and they analyze everything down to the details,so they can be trusted. The market is betting on the economic incentives of the Democrats. Janet Yellen, in her speech to the Senate Finance Committee, supported large-scale financial incentives, which also found a positive reflection in the mood of market participants.

Dow Jones +0.4% to 30930.5 p. (from the beginning of the year +1.1%),
S&P 500 +0.8% to 3,799 p (YTD +1.1%),
NASDAQ +1.5% to 13,197. 2 p. (from the beginning of the year +2.4).

The S&P 500 index traded at a ratio of 30.3 to earnings for the past year and at a ratio of 23 to the projected earnings of its member companies for the coming year. 8 out of 11 sectors showed growth IT sector stocks contributed the most to the index's growth (+1.3%). The energy sector showed the most positive dynamics (+2%). Brent crude rose 2.1% to 55.90/bbl on Tuesday, while US benchmark WTI added 1.2% to $52.98 / bbl.

Of the 505 stocks in the S&P 500 index, 301 rose and 202 lost value.

Microsoft shares (MSFT) contributed the most to the S&P 500 index (+1.8% to $216.44). Shares of General Motors (GM) showed the most positive dynamics among the components of the index (+9.8% to $54.84). At the same time, during the auction, a new absolute maximum was reached at $55.14.

The growth driver was the news that Microsoft will become an investor in the startup for the production of unmanned vehicles-Cruise LLC, a majority stake in which belongs to General Motors. Cruise is expected to use Microsoft's Azure cloud platform to manage a network of self-driving cars.

Etsy shares rose 8.2% to reach an all-time high of $221.19, overwriting the previous peak that was set on January 14. Analysts are positive about the publication of financial results for the 4th quarter. The day before, Morgan Stanley raised its forecast target for Etsy shares from $74 to $93.

Xerox shares fell 4.7% to $21.09 on the back of Cross Research analysts ' decision to downgrade the stock from "hold" to "sell". Cross Research sees pressure on Xerox's margins as many office employees still work remotely.

Quarterly reporting season

Bank of America shares fell 0.73% to $32.77. The bank reported on Tuesday a drop in fourth-quarter profit, which fell to $5.21 billion, or 59 cents per share ($6.75 billion, 74 cents per share a year earlier). However, the profit was better than analysts ' forecasts (55 cents per share). Revenue excluding interest expense declined 10% to $20.1 billion, while Bank of America's net interest income declined 16%. The positive aspect of the report was the fact that the revenue of the bank's trading division increased to $3 billion from $2.8 billion a year earlier.

Goldman Sachs shares were down 2.3% at $294.20. The investment bank also published a report and reported a 153% increase in profit in the 4th quarter due to the results of bond trading and underwriting, as well as increased activity in the field of mergers and acquisitions. Net income rose to $4.36 billion, and earnings per share were $12.08 ($4.69 in the same period a year earlier). The result significantly exceeded the consensus expectations of Wall Street analysts ($7.47 per share).

"We are seeing a continuation of the positive reporting in trading revenue and investment banking that we saw at JPMorgan Chase a day earlier. The results from Goldman Sachs confirm the favorable picture that developed for investment banks at the end of last year. Increased volatility, active trading, increased interest in the IPO and the growth of the market as a whole — all this contributed to the company's good results," commented Alexey Kornilov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Broker on the international stock market.

Halliburton shares were down 0.96% at $20.54 on Tuesday. According to the quarterly report, adjusted net income for the three months to December 31
increased 60% from the previous quarter to $160 million, or 18 cents per share.

The results exceeded the average analyst forecast of 15 cents per share. Revenue rose 8.8% QoQ to $3.24 billion, also slightly exceeding analyst estimates ($3.21 billion). Halliburton shares are down about 23% in 2020.

Tesla shares rose 2.23% to $844.55. After reaching a high of $884.49 on January 8, the automaker's shares are showing consolidation in the form of a converging triangle, which from a technical point of view retains the potential to update the absolute peak with the possibility of growth above $900. Tesla has announced the delivery of the first Model Y crossover produced at a Chinese factory in Shanghai. Before that, the company produced only the Model 3 sedan in China.

Technical view: the chances of a rebound are growing

The US market continued to decline on Friday: the S&P lost 1.9%, the Nasdaq fell 2%. All 11 S&P sectors ended the day in the red, losing from 0.5% (housing and utilities) to 3.4% (energy).



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The market was prone to pessimistic sentiment, completely ignoring the positive in the macroeconomic news. Household incomes rose by 0.6% in December (0.1% was expected). Personal spending decreased by 0.1% (a 0.5% decline was expected. The number of transactions concluded for the sale of housing decreased by 0.3% (a decrease of 0.5% was expected). The index of manufacturing activity in Chicago in January rose to 63.8 (expected 58.0).

Technical picture: in the premarket, we almost reached the lower limit of the 3640 channel and bounced back. If the recovery of the quotes continues, it is likely that they will return to the resistance line of 3760. If the correction continues, the target will be the 3640 support line.

Brent

Brent has fully recovered from the previous day's losses and is trading higher in the morning. We continue to observe a decrease in volatility in the oil market, as well as a prolonged consolidation near the level of 56. If the growth continues, we can expect a move to the resistance level of 60. If the correction continues, then a decline to the support line of 52 is most likely.

The volatility in the foreign exchange market continues to be high. The opening of trading on Friday passed above the level of 76. During the day, the dollar-ruble pair updated the low of the previous day, but by the close it returned back to the key level of 76. If the ruble strengthens, the target will be the lower limit of the 74.50 channel. In the event of an update to Friday's high, the ruble is likely to continue weakening to the resistance level of 77.50.


The Russian market has been below the maximum values for more than 2 weeks. On Friday, the weakening continued, with many securities trading below their foreign counterparts. The end of trading was just below the support line of 136. In the case of a reversal, a rebound to 140 is most likely. If the decline continues, we can expect a correction to the support line of 132,500.

Before opening, a positive news background increases the chances of a rebound. America and Asia are trading in the black: s&p +0.48%, Nasdaq +0.55%, csi300 +1.25%, n225jap +1.36%.

Apple's quarterly report beats expectations

On Wednesday, Apple reported results for the first fiscal quarter of 2021. The company showed very strong results. Almost all of the company's core operating indicators were better than expected.



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The main indicators are the following:
Revenue +21% to $111.44 billion, analysts ' consensus forecast - $103.12 billion.;
Services revenue rose 24% to $15.76 billion, forecast $14.89 billion;
Earnings per share + 34% to $1.68, consensus forecast $1.42;
Revenue in the Greater China region increased 57% YoY to $21.31 billion.

A strong report was expected in connection with the release of the new iPhone 12 model, which was introduced in mid-October 2020.

The iPhone 12 is the first model from Apple equipped with 5G technology, and can serve as the beginning of a new "super cycle" of smartphone updates. Official iPhone sales figures fully met and even exceeded high expectations. The success of the new model allowed Apple to come out on top in smartphone sales, overtaking competitors such as Samsung and Huawei. The number of smartphones delivered was 90.1 million units — a record for the company. Quarterly revenue from the sale  and reviews of the iPhone also amounted to a record $65.6 billion, expected $60.3 billion.

The company has experienced significant growth in all geographic segments. I would especially like to note the growth in sales in "Greater China", where high deferred demand for new iPhones provoked an increase of 57%.

iPhone sales bring the company more than 50% of revenue, and the excellent performance in this segment undoubtedly has a strong positive impact on the company's results. But we have repeatedly said that an even more important long-term growth driver for the company is the transition to the sale of subscription services.

The sale of subscription services (SaaS) has a stable and predictable cash flow. Revenue from services also usually generates more profit. A high proportion of services is very valuable in terms of business stability and valuation. It is not surprising that increasing the share of sales of services is considered a key strategy of the company.

At the end of the reporting quarter, revenue from the provision of services amounted to $15.76 billion, which is 24% more than a year earlier. The services segment is growing at a faster pace than total revenue, which increased by 21%. This means that the strategy to increase the share of services is being implemented.

In the first fiscal quarter of the year, the share of services is traditionally lower than the annual average, as the share of iPhones increases due to the release of new models. But by the end of all of 2021, the share of services in total sales is likely to exceed last year's level of 19.6%.

The success of the company with the update of the iPhone line and the transformation towards services are the basis for a positive view of the company's business. In the future, you should pay attention to how successfully Apple is developing its own ecosystem, which is important for attracting new subscribers and increasing the share of services.

So far, the company is successfully moving in this direction, expanding the list of various services available by subscription. As part of this strategy, services such as Apple TV+, Apple Music, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, iCloud and Fitness+have already been launched.