Technical view: the chances of a rebound are growing

The US market continued to decline on Friday: the S&P lost 1.9%, the Nasdaq fell 2%. All 11 S&P sectors ended the day in the red, losing from 0.5% (housing and utilities) to 3.4% (energy).



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The market was prone to pessimistic sentiment, completely ignoring the positive in the macroeconomic news. Household incomes rose by 0.6% in December (0.1% was expected). Personal spending decreased by 0.1% (a 0.5% decline was expected. The number of transactions concluded for the sale of housing decreased by 0.3% (a decrease of 0.5% was expected). The index of manufacturing activity in Chicago in January rose to 63.8 (expected 58.0).

Technical picture: in the premarket, we almost reached the lower limit of the 3640 channel and bounced back. If the recovery of the quotes continues, it is likely that they will return to the resistance line of 3760. If the correction continues, the target will be the 3640 support line.

Brent

Brent has fully recovered from the previous day's losses and is trading higher in the morning. We continue to observe a decrease in volatility in the oil market, as well as a prolonged consolidation near the level of 56. If the growth continues, we can expect a move to the resistance level of 60. If the correction continues, then a decline to the support line of 52 is most likely.

The volatility in the foreign exchange market continues to be high. The opening of trading on Friday passed above the level of 76. During the day, the dollar-ruble pair updated the low of the previous day, but by the close it returned back to the key level of 76. If the ruble strengthens, the target will be the lower limit of the 74.50 channel. In the event of an update to Friday's high, the ruble is likely to continue weakening to the resistance level of 77.50.


The Russian market has been below the maximum values for more than 2 weeks. On Friday, the weakening continued, with many securities trading below their foreign counterparts. The end of trading was just below the support line of 136. In the case of a reversal, a rebound to 140 is most likely. If the decline continues, we can expect a correction to the support line of 132,500.

Before opening, a positive news background increases the chances of a rebound. America and Asia are trading in the black: s&p +0.48%, Nasdaq +0.55%, csi300 +1.25%, n225jap +1.36%.